Has the October Surprise Happened Yet?

Many people may be aware of the concept of the October Surprise in U.S. Presidential Elections. This refers to a game-changing event late in the cycle (i.e., October) that makes a big difference in the outcome of the election. Most recently, it was the sudden appearance of a 2004 videotape of Osama bin Laden taking full responsibility for the September 11 attacks, but it goes as far back as Vietnam-related events in 1968 with Humphrey and Nixon.

So with all the events in the first 11 days of October, I am wondering if we have seen the October surprise already, or if there is something else coming? Here are several things that could be considered surprises in the coming weeks.

• Palin found guilty of Abuse of Power. It was no surprise that this verdict was passed down this weekend; we were all expecting it and the panel voted unanimously to share the news publicly. And it's no surprise that--in such a polarized electorate--both sides are interpreting it in a way that benefits both of their causes. So this might not be the surprise this time.
  
  
• Obama and his association with William Ayers. This is difficult to fix because the Republicans won't let it die, and the "terrorist" smear is inciting racially-motivated hate speech among people who might not have had the audacity to speak out just a month ago. If Obama acknowledges the issue or explains it any more than in this video, he is somehow legitimizing the claims of the GOP and he does not want to be defensive about a non-issue. If he ignores it, however, the doubts grow.
  
  The bottom line is that Obama was 7 years old in May, 1968. Any association he may have had with Ayers since then has been grossly distorted by the GOP through fear mongering--even if McCain is not directly responsible for those ads. McCain is running a 100% negative advertising campaign right now, compared with only a partially negative campaign being run by Obama. I would like to think that the attacks aren't sticking, and Gallup is reporting that race could even be an advantage for Obama. Polls also seem to be pointing to an increase in Obama's 7.3% lead currently, but this one is far from over--even with all the articles about huge voter registration on the part of Democrats.
  
  
• McCain's Attacks against Obama's Character. After seeing this video on BBC today, it is clear to me that McCain is desperately trying--and failing--to back-pedal his angry mob to keep them from shouting out racial slurs, accusations of being a terrorist or traitor, being Muslim or Arab, or a candidate who simply provokes fear or lack of trust. McCain is facing "boos" from the crowds whenever he makes an attempt at calling Obama "...a decent man..." First he let loose his Palin on the masses to break the ice, and then McCain himself joined in. Conventional wisdom is that McCain and Palin have both crossed the line.
  
  I am baffled by how far people can be misled by herd mentality or water cooler talk, and everything I see in these kinds of videos makes me fearful for attempts on Obama's life. People are growing more and more desperate in the wake of financial ruin, inflation, losing their homes, and high food costs. I sincerely hope the Secret Service is doing everything it can to protect Obama from the lunatic fringe.
  
  
• DonateGate. I'm referring here to the controversy surrounding Obama's questionable donations from overseas or from individuals who provided false identities. There are loopholes for Internet donations that could have never been forseen in the 1970s when the laws were written. All I ask is that the Obama campaign maintains its integrity through this process and gives back the money from questionable or unverified donors. I don't think anything conclusive will happen on this issue before the election--simply because the process is slow for filing complaints and processing the requests.
  
  
• An even bigger stock market crash than we've seen. Part of me wants to run screaming to Washington when I see Bush make another lame-duck attempt at helping out the struggling economy. The world is taking a long, hard look at what got us into this mess: could it have been Greenspan's legacy that steered us toward this financial crisis, or amplified it to some extent?
  
  
• Could there also be a November Surprise? In the 2006 Midterm elections, the Republicans expedited the "guilty" verdict of Saddam Hussein so that it would be the only news item the last two days before voters went to the polls.
  
  Expect allegations of voter fraud, disenfranchised voters, faulty electronic voting machines, Illegal Voter ID cards, etc. In addition, the culture war is far from over, and abortion has come up as well as gay marriage in the past week, so we should expect Palin to sit in the bully pulpit front and center for anything and everything that pushes buttons.