Has the October Surprise Happened Yet?

Many people may be aware of the concept of the October Surprise in U.S. Presidential Elections. This refers to a game-changing event late in the cycle (i.e., October) that makes a big difference in the outcome of the election. Most recently, it was the sudden appearance of a 2004 videotape of Osama bin Laden taking full responsibility for the September 11 attacks, but it goes as far back as Vietnam-related events in 1968 with Humphrey and Nixon.

So with all the events in the first 11 days of October, I am wondering if we have seen the October surprise already, or if there is something else coming? Here are several things that could be considered surprises in the coming weeks.

• Palin found guilty of Abuse of Power. It was no surprise that this verdict was passed down this weekend; we were all expecting it and the panel voted unanimously to share the news publicly. And it's no surprise that--in such a polarized electorate--both sides are interpreting it in a way that benefits both of their causes. So this might not be the surprise this time.
  
  
• Obama and his association with William Ayers. This is difficult to fix because the Republicans won't let it die, and the "terrorist" smear is inciting racially-motivated hate speech among people who might not have had the audacity to speak out just a month ago. If Obama acknowledges the issue or explains it any more than in this video, he is somehow legitimizing the claims of the GOP and he does not want to be defensive about a non-issue. If he ignores it, however, the doubts grow.
  
  The bottom line is that Obama was 7 years old in May, 1968. Any association he may have had with Ayers since then has been grossly distorted by the GOP through fear mongering--even if McCain is not directly responsible for those ads. McCain is running a 100% negative advertising campaign right now, compared with only a partially negative campaign being run by Obama. I would like to think that the attacks aren't sticking, and Gallup is reporting that race could even be an advantage for Obama. Polls also seem to be pointing to an increase in Obama's 7.3% lead currently, but this one is far from over--even with all the articles about huge voter registration on the part of Democrats.
  
  
• McCain's Attacks against Obama's Character. After seeing this video on BBC today, it is clear to me that McCain is desperately trying--and failing--to back-pedal his angry mob to keep them from shouting out racial slurs, accusations of being a terrorist or traitor, being Muslim or Arab, or a candidate who simply provokes fear or lack of trust. McCain is facing "boos" from the crowds whenever he makes an attempt at calling Obama "...a decent man..." First he let loose his Palin on the masses to break the ice, and then McCain himself joined in. Conventional wisdom is that McCain and Palin have both crossed the line.
  
  I am baffled by how far people can be misled by herd mentality or water cooler talk, and everything I see in these kinds of videos makes me fearful for attempts on Obama's life. People are growing more and more desperate in the wake of financial ruin, inflation, losing their homes, and high food costs. I sincerely hope the Secret Service is doing everything it can to protect Obama from the lunatic fringe.
  
  
• DonateGate. I'm referring here to the controversy surrounding Obama's questionable donations from overseas or from individuals who provided false identities. There are loopholes for Internet donations that could have never been forseen in the 1970s when the laws were written. All I ask is that the Obama campaign maintains its integrity through this process and gives back the money from questionable or unverified donors. I don't think anything conclusive will happen on this issue before the election--simply because the process is slow for filing complaints and processing the requests.
  
  
• An even bigger stock market crash than we've seen. Part of me wants to run screaming to Washington when I see Bush make another lame-duck attempt at helping out the struggling economy. The world is taking a long, hard look at what got us into this mess: could it have been Greenspan's legacy that steered us toward this financial crisis, or amplified it to some extent?
  
  
• Could there also be a November Surprise? In the 2006 Midterm elections, the Republicans expedited the "guilty" verdict of Saddam Hussein so that it would be the only news item the last two days before voters went to the polls.
  
  Expect allegations of voter fraud, disenfranchised voters, faulty electronic voting machines, Illegal Voter ID cards, etc. In addition, the culture war is far from over, and abortion has come up as well as gay marriage in the past week, so we should expect Palin to sit in the bully pulpit front and center for anything and everything that pushes buttons.
  

Negative Campaigning, VP Debate Fallout, DonateGate, and More...

There is so much to talk about over the last few days, but very little of it can be put together to form a common thread. Here is what is keeping me awake at night:

Negative Campaigning
Obama has finally started his offensive against McCain. Hooray! It's about time someone stood up to the smear tactics of the Republicans, and previously I was really disappointed that Obama sat back and watched the Right gain ground on him as he took the moral high ground by not responding to GOP false claims. It is a well-known fact in political science that negative campaigning works, and this is the home stretch of a race where Obama/Biden are clearly ahead and need to maintain that 6+ percentage point lead. Even if the claim is related to McCain's associations to Keating and the S&L Crisis, the McCain's health care plan, or that McCain is becoming more erratic as of late, it is still negative compared to where Obama stood previously.

In terms of the claims that Obama has associated with "domestic terrorists," it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Obama was only 7 years old in 1968. Serving on a charity board with someone does not constitute "palling around" with terrorists, regardless of the spin neocons want to put on this hockey puck. And even if Obama held a meeting in Ayers' home, he did so many years later, after he was a professor at Northwestern University. I love Keith Olbermann's response.

My prediction is that the negative campaigns will get a lot worse before they ever get better, and I wouldn't be surprised if Reverend Wright was summoned for an encore performance because he proved to be so effective in the past. Fasten your safety belts, America! You're in for one hell of an October reality TV sweeps month...

VP Debate Fallout
I sincerely hope that Thursday was the last time I ever have to sit down in front of a television and have to watch and/or listen to Sarah Palin for 90 minutes ever again. As I mentioned in my previous post, the bar was so low for her that she did well just to show up and read off her cue cards--regardless of the questions that were asked. One source cited 10 times where she failed to answer the question she was asked, in addition to her stating quite bluntly: "And I may not answer the questions that either the moderator or you want to hear, but I'm going to talk straight to the American people and let them know my track record also."

Well, Governor Palin, let me put this in simple terms: The American people wanted to know where you stood on all these issues last week during the debate. That was the straight-talk they wanted to hear. That's why Gwen Ifill crafted those questions for you! You're making a mockery of yourself, Governor Palin--even moreso than Tina Fey!

Overall, this "debate" was not about winning or losing; it was about Palin recovering from her recent press interviews and Biden not looking like a patronizing bully. Here is a short list of articles you can read if you are so inclined.

• New York Daily News
• NYT Opinion/Editorial (Frank Rich)
  
• Full Debate Transcript

DonateGate
I don't know if anyone has coined the phrase yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if we heard something like this blow up in the near future. Obama's campaign donations are being called into question, and the Republicans are crying foul. Personally, I agree that nothing will come of this until after the election is over, and I would prefer that it does not detract from the discourse that should be all about the issues. Full disclosure: I have given the maximum amount ($200) of an individual donor to the Obama campaign.

I think this is a revolutionary way of running a grass-roots campaign, and it brings together some of the forward progress of the 2000 campaign and the 2004 campaign, with so much more to celebrate! Between the Internet and YouTube specifically, we are seeing a fundamental shift in a candidate's ability to reach the masses--as well as a fantastic way for citizens to act!

Big Shifts in the Electoral Map
The economy has created some new swing states in the past week. West Virginia and Georgia are now in play! In addition, McCain pulling out of Michigan is a definite sign of weakness in the GOP campaign. Obama is also pulling ahead with about a 3.0% lead in Florida; some are attributing this to the weaknesses in the economy.

Even though some are saying they could still catch up, there are just as many saying that the race is already over.

Town Hall Debate on Tuesday
Some say the town hall debate format is McCain's strong suit. I would argue, based on Obama's stronger performance in caucuses v. primaries, that it is also Obama's strong suit. Expect a draw, which will go to the front runner. At the time of this entry, the front runner is Obama by more than 6%.

Don't Count on Biden Winning Thursday's Debate Against Palin

The Republicans want us to believe a lot of things about Sarah Palin.

• They want us to think she is the victim of sexist attacks from the Left.
• They want us to think she has been unfairly scrutinized for her abysmal performance in Television Interviews. Again, and again.
  
• They want us to think the debate is rigged because Gwen Ifill, who is African-American and has a "pro-Obama" book coming out next year, is biased against Sarah Palin.

All of this equates to an overwhelming consensus of sympathy for Palin's plight. And Obama has maintained an admirable and respectable stance regarding Palin's qualifications or her personal life that has ignited the media firestorm.

We can't be so sure Biden will exercise the same amount of restraint. He is known for his long-windedness, non-sequitirs, and gaffes. He is also the designated hitter when it comes to attacking McCain and Palin.

Think of the Vice Presidential Debate on Thursday as a series of two-minute speeches Palin has been rehearsing with handlers all week. She shines in a scripted setting, and she is quite good at delivering a speech with charisma. So all she has to do is:

• Be informed and coached to stay on message (this could be difficult)
  
• Perform without a supportive crowd shouting "Drill Baby Drill!"
  

If Katie Couric is any indication of how a face-to-face interview unsettles Palin, we might see similar behavior in the way Palin reacts to Gwen Ifill as the moderator. But then again, she could be a quick study and learn from her mistakes and public ridicule.

We need to be sure that the empathy, pity, and sympathy for Sarah Palin does not result in lowering the bar so low that she walks away from Thursday's debate with an easy victory. We have endured eight years of the lowest bar possible for someone in the oval office, and it is time we demand more from our leaders. We are teetering on the edge of a global economic crisis, and we need vision and leadership now more than ever.

If Biden's handlers are wise, they will coach him to stay scripted on the economy (Obama's strong suit), as well as foreign policy and experience (Biden's strong suit). He should stay away from attacking Palin or her character in any way, shape, or form, and instead focus on taking McCain down on the issues where McCain is weakest: the economy, links to Bush-Cheney, the bailout, energy policies, and so on.

So Thursday's debate could be a lot more favorable to Palin than the media are predicting. I do not think it will be a "blowout" because of the lowered expectations of how she will perform. But we shouldn't let the bar get so low that we open the door for McCain/Palin to coast their way into a free ride to the White House.

Further Reading

• This article is a little old but it has good insight and reassurance that Presidential Candidates win Presidential Elections--not Vice Presidential candidates.
• A Newsweek article arguing that the VP debate does matter.
• Zombie Feminists of the RNC...